Our new Deepseek-based AI states "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"
Super Bowl predictions from our brand-new Deepseek-based AI trained to be better at forecasting
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No one can anticipate the future however at Lightning Rod Labs we are training AI to provide it its best shot. With approximately date news and a little but tough 14 Billion criterion design, our AI is boldly anticipating the unforeseeable. Join us as we try to answer humanity's hardest questions.
Super Bowl Sunday is nearly upon us and, just as two years back, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread presently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the stats are well studied, there remain numerous pressing concerns that are less easy to select. Our business, Lightning Rod Labs, has been mining concerns from places like polymarket.com and training a big language design to be better at forecasting the future (and have actually seen some appealing enhancements - research study paper inbound). Today we turned its cold, calculating eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can offer us some insight into the finer points of what we can anticipate this Sunday.
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Background
Our AI is a 14 billion criterion model which is really on the smaller side. (Some quotes recommend ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION specifications and trained using 8000 H100 GPUs. We used 8.) Additionally, its knowledge cutoff is from numerous months earlier so we have constructed an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each question we offer the news and watch as the AI reasons its method through unidentified area to make its best prediction possible.
And Now ... The Important Questions
We positioned the following concerns to our AI and assessed its reaction. While we have seen forecast improvements from our training, utilize these estimates for prop wagering at your own danger.
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?
AI Final Prediction: 5% possibility
And so it appears this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI believes Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock strong, but a little too personal for a post-Super Bowl proposition. Plus got ta aspect in if the Chiefs lose. That would be an uncomfortable proposition ...
First, I'll take a look at the crucial points from the short articles. Travis has actually remained in a relationship with Taylor since 2023. He's a huge football star, and she's been encouraging of his profession, attending his games. They seem to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has even invited her pals and family to the Super Bowl, showing her dedication.
Some fans are excited, while others, specifically Swifties, are a bit uncertain, particularly provided comments Travis made about Donald Trump participating in the Super Bowl. That has triggered some Swifties to question how appropriate Travis is for Taylor. However, the couple seems to be keeping their relationship private and not attending to the speculation straight.
I think the bottom lines are the speculation and his evasive responses. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is an essential occasion, the odds and his actions recommend it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd estimate a low probability, possibly around 5%, considering all aspects.
Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the super bowl?
AI Final Prediction: 79% possibility
No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from using their signature "tush-push" relocation, now its just a different front-tush being pressed. Will an AI understand what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even understand what a "tush" is? Will it consider that the Chiefs stopped (debate aside) Josh Allen's comparable attempts? Looks like our AI believes they'll be utilizing Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again throughout this game.
Alright, I'm attempting to find out the possibility that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the Super Bowl. First, I require to comprehend exactly what a "tush-push" is. From the posts, it seems like it's a method where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, uses his legs and lower body strength to press off protectors. It's compared to pushing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that needs strength and strategy.
Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts uses his leg strength, having actually done a 600-pound squat, to carry out the relocation. The article points out that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this technique, which is pretty high. ... I also need to consider the defensive methods of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs understand the Eagles' "tush-push" technique, they might change their defense appropriately, which could either increase or decrease the variety of times the Eagles utilize it.
Considering that more than 5 looks like a significant number however possible offered their self-confidence, I would estimate a probability around 60-70% possibility. This represents their preparation, self-confidence in the technique, and the possibility that they'll utilize it a number of times, specifically if it works early on.
Will Kendrick Lamar Trump during the halftime show performance?
AI Final Prediction: 65% chance
While our AI may not resemble us when it pertains to consciousness, a soul, or any physical manifestation, it certainly has opinions on Kendrick Lamar. It was pretty uncertain, waffling backward and forward, however in the end it believes Kendrick isn't going to back down from a fight.
From the posts, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of slamming Trump. He's done this in his tunes, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a statement throughout a previous halftime program when Trump was present in 2018. That appears substantial due to the fact that it reveals he's done it before, so possibly he'll do it again. But wait, taking a look at more recent posts, it mentions that Lamar is moving away from political statements and focusing more on personal expression. That might mean he's less likely to attend to Trump this time.
However, he's likewise associated with a feud with Drake, which may offer him factors to make some public declarations, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal issues surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a disparagement fit from Drake, so perhaps he's mindful about consisting of any questionable songs in the efficiency. But considering that he won the Grammys for that track, he might still wish to perform it, even if it's uncertain.
Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a high-profile occasion, Lamar might feel obliged to make a statement. However, the NFL tends to avoid political statements during the halftime program, so there's a danger that such content might be restricted or softened.
On the other hand, Lamar has a track record of making bold proceed big phases. He's the very first solo rap act to headline the halftime show, which might give him more imaginative liberty. Plus, his past behavior recommends he's not shy about expressing his viewpoints, even in public performances.
But I also remember reading that Lamar revealed fatigue about criticizing Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That might indicate he's less motivated to raise Trump this time around, especially if he's focusing on his fight with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past behavior, existing shifts in focus, legal concerns, and the event's context-the likelihood seems to be moderately high, possibly around 65%.
Will Andy Reid consume a cheeseburger on screen after the extremely bowl?
AI Final Prediction: 25% opportunity
Lets be honest, Andy Reid likes cheeseburgers. And who does not? Will the truth that our AI has never ever tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh burger taint its prediction? Looks like theres somewhat of an opportunity that if the chiefs taste triumph, Andy will taste Angus Beef.
From the short articles, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid consuming a cheeseburger throughout a Super Bowl celebration. Bradshaw later on said sorry for the joke, saying he didn't suggest to trigger offense and that he actually found it humorous himself. Reid appeared to take it in stride, which might show he's the type to laugh it off rather than getting upset.
Looking at the articles, it points out that Andy Reid is a food enthusiast and likes cheeseburgers. There's a post particularly about his love for food, which recommends that he's an individual who delights in eating, specifically with his group. So, if there were strategies to celebrate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would take part in a cheeseburger, especially if the situation is on screen for a celebration.
Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?
AI Final Prediction: 50% chance
"Tails never ever fails?" You can't deceive the machines !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have actually been forecasting the coin toss and 53% are anticipating heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 very bowls. Potentially profitable? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be fooled and thinks anything can take place when that coin enters the air.
Okay, so I'm trying to figure out the possibility that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I know that a coin toss is expected to be 50/50, but there's some historic information that might influence this forecast.
First, I go through the posts provided. They all mention the historical data of Super Bowl coin tosses. It appears like tails has actually turned up more frequently than heads historically. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, historydb.date tails has actually been the result 30 times, which has to do with 52%, while heads has been 28 times, which has to do with 48%. So, based purely on history, tails has a slight edge, however it's not a substantial difference.
However, I keep in mind that the result of a coin toss is normally thought about random. The minor historical edge for tails might be due to opportunity. But when making forecasts, sometimes individuals weigh historic information even if it's not statistically substantial. So, I should consider whether this historical bias needs to affect the possibility.
After thinking of it, I decide that while the historic information shows a minor choice for tails, it's not statistically considerable enough to move the possibility far from 0.5. So, I'll choose 0.5 as the probability, acknowledging that the minor historical edge exists but doesn't override the reality that each toss is an independent 50/50 event.
Will the referees cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?
AI Final Prediction: 1% possibility
We get it, you think the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na assist him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I assure we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training information) I would probably believe the same. BUT, its official now since our AI says the possibilities are only 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still kind of high when it pertains to fraud on a national scale). Appears like the Chiefs will need to win fair and square!
AI Reasoning:
Okay, so I'm trying to determine the possibility that the referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a quite major accusation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a lot of articles that talk about conspiracy theories suggesting referees are prejudiced towards the Chiefs. People are indicating some questionable hire current video games, specifically the AFC National championship. That does seem to trigger some uncertainty. I can see why fans might get annoyed when their team loses due to what they perceive as bad officiating.
But then I check out that the NFL Referees Association and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "outrageous" and "ridiculous." They state there's no evidence of organized bias. That's a strong declaration from individuals in charge. If they're rejecting it, it may mean there's no real basis or they would have resolved it differently if there was some truth to it.
Looking at the short articles, a number of sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the authorities are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They likewise discussed that statistical analysis doesn't show any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For instance, Mike Pereira from FOX said data shows the Chiefs have actually been punished more because 2022. That's fascinating since if they were getting special treatment, you might anticipate less charges, right?
...
So, putting it all together, the possibility that referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is most likely very low. Maybe not zero due to the fact that you can't dismiss every possibility, but exceptionally not likely.
Summary
There you have it everybody, is it even worth watching the game still? I guess I'll have to wait and see how the game turns out before we unleash this upon the stock exchange. Fingers crossed for a great game! And hi, if it turns out our AI was wrong about everything, a minimum of it can gain from this.
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Our new Deepseek based AI Says
Abbey Imlay edited this page 2 months ago